The CENTURY 21® Customized Home Marketing System, offered by Warren Nass, assists you in differentiating your home from others in your marketplace.

This marketing system will help alleviate any anxiety you may have about selling your home and guide you through the selling process. The CENTURY 21® Customized Home Marketing System will show you all the enhanced marketing support and customer convenience services the CENTURY 21® System can offer you. Contact Warren Nass today.

The Customized Home Marketing System Offers Proprietary Marketing Tools to Provide You with Superior Service when Selling Your Home.

• Provide You with a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) to Establish Fair Market Value
• A Powerful Brand Name
• More local advertising than any local office. Will advertise your home in the local front cover of the Pennysaver Magazine, Full Color Ad in the Home Emporium Magazine, Los Angeles Times Sunday "Homes" Section, Full Color Photo Flyer and on over 1700 different wesites on the Internet including Realtor.com and warren4realestate.com  
• The Century 21 Gold Post Sign in Your Yard
• Schedule and Hold Open Houses
• Mail at least 250 "Just Listed" Postcards to Area Owners 
• Robust Online Marketing
• Global Referral Network
• Specialty Markets
• CENTURY 21® Seller Service Pledge®
• And Much, Much More...  

Warren Nass can answer your questions, provide professional advice, and handle all the details for you.

Like you, today’s consumers want comprehensive services from their real estate professional. Warren Nass offers services you want and can provide you with the peace of mind you deserve. Services such as:

• Mortgage Services
• Home Warranty Protection
• Home Inspection Services
• Title/Escrow Services
• Professional Moving Services

Through CENTURY 21® Connections (SM), Warren Nass offers you additional services and programs that will help save you money and provide the highest level of service ever offered by any real estate organization.

With the Customized Marketing System, the CENTURY 21® System averages a home bought or sold a minute every day.  Is there any reason why we can’t sell yours?

Dump This House: Unloading Your Property in a Slow Market By Jonathan Clements
From The Wall Street Journal Online

It could be the kindest cut of all.

Look at the prices of homes getting sold, and the property market's decline seems no worse than a rough day in the stock market. Look at the number of unsold homes, and you realize there's a world of financial pain out there.

True, these unsold homes may eventually get bought at decent prices. But in the meantime, the owners are often bleeding money -- and many of them would be smart to slash their asking price and go for the quick sale.

• Taking time. As you can see from the accompanying chart, home prices are down just 4.5% from their July 2006 peak.

Yet even as prices appear pretty much unchanged, the number of unsold homes has soared. At the current pace of sales, it would take more than 10 months to clear this backlog, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Sure, it would be emotionally draining to have your home on the market for more than 10 months. But it probably wouldn't be a financial disaster -- as long as you're still in the house and you can comfortably cover the mortgage.

Maybe, however, you have an adjustable-rate loan that's now unaffordable. Maybe you're trying to unload a vacation home. Maybe you moved cross-country for a new job, but your old house still hasn't sold.

The monthly cost of carrying a vacant home could equal 1% of a home's value, figures Charles Farrell, an adviser with Denver's Northstar Investment Advisors. After all, you still have to pay utilities, insurance, property taxes, maintenance and, of course, the mortgage.

What if the mortgage is paid off? There's still an opportunity cost. The equity in your home could instead be invested in, say, bonds yielding 5%.

To make matters worse, "prices could be lower a year from now," Mr. Farrell warns. "There's also the risk of owning a physical asset. I'm thinking about things like fire, broken pipes, theft."

• Cutting deeply. Despite all this, sellers are loath to cut their asking price, which is the reason prices have barely budged -- so far.

"People focus on what their home was worth two years ago, or how much they've sunk into it, or on their desire not to bring a check to the closing," notes financial adviser Bert Whitehead, author of "Why Smart People Do Stupid Things With Money."

His advice: Ditch these emotional hangups -- and unload your property now. "If you really want to sell your house, you have to cut deep," Mr. Whitehead says.

Good advice? Here's how to decide for yourself:

• Ask your real-estate agent how many properties are on the market in your town today and how many sold in each of the past six months, advises Chris Mayer, director of Columbia Business School's Milstein Center for Real Estate.

"If there are 2,000 houses on the market and 200 houses sold last month, that means it's taking 10 months to sell a house," Prof. Mayer says. "That's pretty simple math, but nobody ever does it. If you price your house like everybody else, it might take 10 months to sell it."

• Suppose you price your home like everybody else and it does indeed take 10 months to sell. Figure out how much you would be out of pocket over that stretch, either because your home is vacant or because the mortgage has become unaffordably large.

• Spend your Sunday going to open houses in the neighborhood. That should give you an indication of what you need to ask if you want to get your home sold now. Given the cost of carrying your home and the risk prices will fall further, would it be cheaper to slash your asking price?

If you're going to lower your price, Prof. Mayer advises doing it right away -- or waiting until early next year. He notes that very few houses sell between Thanksgiving and mid-January.

"The best scenario is that prices fall through the spring and then stabilize," Prof. Mayer says. "But I'm more pessimistic than that. I would sell now."

Marketing Plan

I am committed to offer the highest standards of professional service to all our customers.  To assure you that your property is marketed to its fullest potential and to obtain the highest possible market value, the following will be completed:

1. Prepare CMA to establish fair market value
2. Prepare and sign listing contract
3. Assist with finding contractors to repair property for sale
4. Input listing on Multiple Listing Service board including up to 20 color photos
5. Place the Century 21 'For Sale' sign on property
6. Place lock box on property
7. Notify the Top 100 Agents of this new listing
8. Schedule property for office tour
9. Place property for sale in neighborhood newsletter
10. Place 'Open House' ad in Los Angeles Times Newspaper
11. Phone all potential buyers with details of  listing
12. Advertise home in Los Angeles Times Newspaper Sunday "Home" Section, PennySaver Magazine, Full Color Photo Ad in the Home Emporium Magazine, Full Color Photo Flyer, and on over 3000 different Websites including http://warren4realestate.com, Century21.com and Realtor.com on the internet
13. Hold open houses
14. Arrange showings for other agents
15. Contact you regularly with verbal progress reports
16. Prepare and deliver Marketing Service report to owner
17. Review marketing activities with owner
18. Pre-qualify potential buyers
19. Present and discuss all offers on property with owner
20. Negotiate the transaction with other agent
21. Finalize the closing
22. Arrange for relocation agent, if  required
23. Arrange for moving company

February 26, 2007 Forbes - HOUSING BOOM!  by Kenneth L. Fisher

"Don't buy it. For months now the debate has been on whether America will have a hard landing or a soft landing, the answer hinging on how big 2007's housing disaster turns out to be. Well, there won't be any housing disaster. We won't have a landing at all, soft or hard. Right now the U.S. and global economies are both accelerating.

You can see right through the housing crash story by looking at the price of housing stocks. The market knows what the economic worrywarts do not, which is that the housing sector is already making a comeback. In the last six months housing stocks are up 24%, well ahead of the overall market. If housing were destined to fall apart in 2007 these stocks wouldn't be so strong now. 

Did you know that housing sales are up in the last few months, not down, and the inventories are lower than 6 months ago?  Were accelerating, not landing. This is true not just in housing but also pretty much across the board. The Federal Reserve probably won't cut interest rates soon, but it doesn't need to. The economy is humming along without any artificial boost."  

November 30, 2006

C.A.R. Reports Median Price of California Home Up 2% from Last Year

This week, C.A.R. released their monthly housing report for the state of California including home price & sales statistics for Orange and Los Angeles counties. 

Newspaper Article-Sunday, February 11, 2007 Compare your home: Buena Park vs. Tustin

 Sellers -  Find out what your home is worth is todays' market and use the valuation tools to arrive at the right selling price or call Warren Nass to come to your home for a free personal consultation, competitive market analysis, free staging of your home for sale and access to answers to all of your questions.

Sellers - Get an idea of what your home is worth in todays' market. This is just an estimate. For a more precise value, call Warren Nass today! (714)606-0329     

Announing a new Special Report:  29 Essential Tips the get Homes Sold Fast (and for Top Dollar)

Warren Nass, one of La Mirada's leading real estate professionals, has put together an in-depth report filled with information you need to know before you pet your home on the market. In it, Warren tells you the critical things to do- and what not to do-to get your home sold quickly and for the highest price possible. To get your free copy of Warren's special report, call 714-523-7151 ext. 136 or email me at warren.nass@century21.com, 24 hours a day.

Click Here for "21 Questions That Help Your Property Sell Faster!"

Price is the #1 most important factor in the sale of your home.         

You do not control market value...

There is no regulatory agency on home prices.

The law of supply and demand reigns supreme.

However, professional appraisers, real estate agents, and mortgage lenders all use the most recent selling prices of similar properties...in a similar location...in similar condition...to determine a home's fair market value.

The result is an appraisal of your home's value - a professional opinion based on reliable market data. Called a Comparable Market Analysis (CMA) - this approach is considered the most accurate of all available appraisal tools and is the basis of all lending criteria - the facts of record upon which all mortgage loans are based.  

You do control the asking price...

Naming the price sets the homeselling process in motion. You chose the asking price. The asking price you choose will largely determine the response you get in the marketplace.

Only a buyer willing to put money in your pocket can tell you what your home is actually worth. To choose the asking price that will best serve your selling goals, you must:

1. Have a good idea of your home's fair market value
2. Know the mood of your local real estate market
3. Consider the season of the year
4. Evaluate the aspects of your home that add or detract from its value

With this information you can then chose one pricing strategy if a quick sale is important, and another pricing strategy if making as much money as you possibly can, is the most important.

To get more money - Ask for less! 

One of the most powerful ways to get the most money for your home in the quickest amount of time, and with the fewest problems is to price your home slightly less than the competition, and slightly more than recent sales.

The strategy creates the illusion of a below market deal which attracts huge numbers of buyers to view your home.

And because of the increased activity, interest and enthusiasm, you stand a much better chance of getting a 'Full Price Offer' that is slightly more than recent sales.

The seller sets the price of the home, and ultimately the buyer determines the value. I will supply you with the facts about what has Sold recently and what is For Sale now to help you set a price.

Beware of Devious Agents - Beware that some devious agents will at first suggest some very handsome sales price. Then, after they have the listing and the house has not sold, they will come back with a pitch to lower the price. - Consumer Reports 

Dangers of Overpricing

• Reduces sales activity and showings
• Reduces advertising response
• Loses interested buyers and agent enthusiasm
• Attracts the wrong prospects
• Minimizes offers  
• Helps sell the competition
• Can cause appraisal problems
• Extends market time

Common Pricing Objections - frequently heard from sellers which have no relationship to value

• "Another agent said it was worth more."
• "Our home is nicer than those houses."
• "People always offer less than asking price."
• "We can always come down on our price."
• "We have to get that much out of our house."
• My neighbor was able to get his price."
• "Let's try it at our price for a month or so."
• "The buyers can always make an offer."

Houses sell quickly and usually for the most money when they are priced properly in the beginning. Most activity will take place in the first four weeks of the listing. The excitement of a new property on the market will create an urgency for both buyers and agents to see it as quickly as possible.  For that reason, in many instances the home will receive its highest and best iffers during this time. 

After the initial period, the only people to look at the home will be new buyers in the marketplace. 

Utilize a electronic Supra lockbox for easier and more property showings. This technology addresses security and allows me to keep track of who has shown the property and when. It also allows agents to show the property while you are away. The more buyers through your home, the more chances of receiving the offer you were looking for.

There are five essential ingredients that comprise the formula for a successful sale of your home. 

1. Location - The pricing of your home must reflect its location. The better the location, the higher the acceptable price. School districts, high or low traffic areas, and freeway accessibility, all need to be considered in determining the value of your home's location. We cannot control the location.
2. Condition - The pricing of your home must accurately reflect its condition. The general upkeep and presentation is critical to obtaining the highest value for your home. Nature of the roof, plumbing, carpets and paint all relate to condition. Basic rule:  If we can smell it...We can't sell it.
3. Market - Recession, inflation, interest rates, mortgage availability, competition and the public's perception of the general economy all make up the market. It may be a buyer's market or a seller's market. The pricing of your home must reflect the current nature of the market, because we cannot influence the market. We can, however, take advantage of the market. 
4. Terms - The more financing terms and options you are willing to accept, the potential buyers for your property. The pricing of your home must reflect the terms available. The easier the terms, the more valuable your property becomes.
5. Price - The home must be priced right to sell at the highest possible price.

The agent controls the marketing. The seller controls the others. Your home will sell at its highest profit and in the quickest amount of time when all the ingredients are combined perfectly. If only one ingredient is left out of the formula or is out of proportion to the others....your home will take longer to sell and will, quite possibly, cost your money! 

The Basic Law of Real Estate is "Ads Don't Sell Homes People Do!"  A study be the National Association of Realtors uncovered some interesting statistics about where buyers come from:

40% - Purchased a home because the recognized an Agent or Office and were serviced by them previously or were referred to them by family, friends or co-workers

20% - Purchased a home because they saw a sign in the yard and approved the home's exterior and location

18% - Responded to an Ad, but eventually purchased another home

7% - Were referred through a relocation service

3% - Bought the home they saw advertised

1% - Bought the home they saw at an Open House

3% - Bought for a combination of the above reasons

The best way to insure a quick sale is to price your home competitively. Buyers purchase homes by comparison and will usually make an offer on a properly priced home before making an offer on an over priced home. Price and terms are the most important buyer motivators. 

The Listing Plan of Action

My Objectives Are The Following:

1. To assist in getting as many qualified buyers as possible into your home until it is SOLD.
2. To communicate to you weekly the results of our activities.
3. To assist you in negotiating the highest dollar value, between you and the buyer. 

The Following Are The Steps I Take To Get A Home SOLD - The "Pro-Active Approach:

1. Submit your home to our local Multiple Listing Service.
2. Price your home competitively.
3. Promote your home at the company sales meeting and bring them to your home on caravan.
4. Develop a list of features of your home for the Brokers to use with their potential buyers.
5. Mail approximately 2000 postcards or flyers to potential buyers advertising the home. Contact potential buyers, my sphere of influence and past clients about the home.
6. Suggest and advise as to any changes you may want to make in your property to make it more saleable.  Stage the home and remove unnecessary clutter.
7. Constantly update you as to any changes in the marketplace.
8. Add additional exposure through a professional Century 21 sign and electronic Supra lock box.
9. Whenever possible pre-qualify the prospective buyers.
10. Keep you aware of the various methods of financing that a buyer might want to use.
11. When possible have the cooperating Brokers and agents in the area to tour your home.
12. Follow-up on the salespeople who have shown your home for their feedback and response.
13. Assist you in arranging interim financing , if necessary.
14. Represent you on all offer presentations to assure you in negotiation the best possible price and terms.
15. Assist you in arranging interim financing, if necessary.
16. Handle all follow-up upon a contract being accepted, all mortgage, title and other closing procedures.
17. Deliver your check or wire your funds at the closing.

It's not an easy time be a home seller. Compared to a year ago, prices are down -- sharply for new homes and a record drop for existing homes -- and supply is up, significantly in some areas. Real estate experts don't agree on whether the worst is over or how long the slump might last. What's your prediction for the housing market? 

The Daily Pulse October 26, 2006 Historic Price Drop AOL Money & Finance

One in every 825 California households reported foreclosure activity in September 2006, compared to one in every 1,030 households nationally.

Daily Real Estate News  |  August 8, 2007

Near-Term Home Sales to Hold in Modest Range

The housing market will probably hold close to present levels in the months ahead, NAR says.

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, says he isn’t looking for any notable changes in sales activity.

“Existing-home sales should be relatively stable over the next few months, holding in a modest range, with some pent-up demand growing from buyers who’ve been on the sidelines,” he says. “Mortgage disruptions will hold back sales over the short term, but long-term fundamentals are favorable. A modest upturn is projected for existing-home sales toward the end of the year, with broader improvement to include the new-home market by the middle of 2008.”

Housing Outlook

Here's NAR's forecast for home sales in the next few months:

• Existing-home sales: expected to be at 6.04 million in 2007 and 6.38 million next year, below the 6.48 million recorded in 2006. Existing-home prices should ease by 1.2 percent to a median of $219,300 in 2007 before rising 2 percent next year to $223,600.
• New-home sales: projected to total 852,000 this year and 848,000 in 2008, down from 1.05 million in 2006. The median new-home price will probably fall 2.3 percent to $240,800 in 2007, and then rise 2.3 percent next year to $246,300.
• Housing starts (including multifamily units): are likely to total 1.43 million in 2007 and 1.40 million next year, below the 1.8 million units started in 2006.

Better Times Ahead

“With the population growing, the demand for homes isn’t going away — it’s just being delayed,” Yun says. “More buyers, and cutbacks in new construction, will eventually draw down the inventory levels and support future price appreciation, but general gains will be modest next year. Serious buyers today have a long-term view of housing as an investment — speculators have left the market.”

— REALTOR® Magazine Online

For more economic news and research reports, visit NAR's Research division at REALTOR.org.

When the Sellers Aren't Selling Remind Them: "Presentation is Everything!"

At times the sellers themselves thwart the efforts of the Real Estate Agent. Nothing can be quite as frustrating as trying to pull all the weight when someone else is adding to the burden by being uncooperative!

If you have a seller who is not making sure their home is presentable to a potential buyer, remind them that presentation is everything! By eliminating points the potential buyer may find fault with and bringing out the positive amenities, they are more likely to sell the home quickly and also get the price they are asking for. Here are just a few tips that will help them support your efforts as their representative in the transaction:

Let there be light. Buy some 100-watt bulbs to brighten the rooms and open curtains or blinds to let light in. Unless a window faces a brick wall or some type of eyesore, open the drapes!

A Buyer's Market? If you're considering SELLING a house in a BUYER'S market, here are five tips.

1. Play the cards you're dealt! Successful poker nights begin before you reach the table, when you resolve not to chase after hands that you have no realistic hands of winning. Similarly, a successful home sale begins before the house is even listed, when you personally decide not to expect to make a killing. 
2. Scope out other houses for sale. Break through your ego and stubbornness by looking at the good deals that your neighbors are offering. The most important thing is to really shop the competition on the market right now. 
3. Make it turnkey, not a turkey. The word "turnkey" is used in commercial real estate. It means a property is ready for immediate use. I consider the term to read that you turn the key and everything inside is ready to go and included in the sale. I would rather your house look like a model home. With all of the television shows like "Design to Sell", "Flip this House" it makes it a lot easier to know what it should look like. Your house has to be that way when buyers have a cornucopia of houses to choose from. You have to take away all their opportunities to say no. 
4. Offer incentives. After you have put your head on straight, spied on the competition and fixed up your house, it's time to figure out what goodies you will dangle before buyers and their agents. 
5. Price realistically. Finally, don't get greedy. Just because it went up to some astromical value and it went down from there, you have to be realistic that there has been moderation in the market.          

Real Estate Market Update - Jan. 2007

The inventory of available homes is lower than 6 months ago but growing! The mortgage rates are still very low, around 6.125% for a 30 fixed rate mortgage, but it is on the rise.  We have lots of willing and qualified buyers making this a great opportunity to sell your property for top dollar at this time.  If you would like to know what your property is worth in today's market, please call me for a free market analysis. (714) 606-0329

NAR blames weather, subprime woes for sales drop. March existing-home sales slide 11.3%.  Tuesday, April 24, 2007 Inman News

The rate of existing-home sales fell 11.3 percent and the median price dropped 0.3 percent in March compared to the same month last year, the National Association of Realtors reported today.

Existing-home sales -- including single-family homes, townhomes and condominiums -- fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.12 million in March, down 8.4 percent compared to February.

This was the largest month-over-month decline since January 1989, when home sales fell 12.6 percent compared to the prior month. But the Realtor group notes that year-over-year change is more statistically meaningful than month-to-month comparisons.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate is a projection of a monthly sales total over a 12-month period, adjusted to account for seasonal variations in sales activity.

"Unusually bad winter weather" and "a decrease in subprime lending volume" may have contributed to the slowing sales volume, the Realtor trade group reported. The rate of existing-home sales had increased for three straight months before the March drop-off.

"For the last couple months we've been expecting a weather 'hit' on home sales finalized in March," said David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, in a statement. "We also may be seeing some losses as a result of the subprime fallout.

"It's too early to measure a significant impact from tighter lending standards, which should moderately dampen activity, but we're still looking for existing-home sales to gradually improve during the last half of 2007."

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $217,000 in March, compared with $217,600 in March 2006. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

This percentage change reflects a shift in the composition of sales "from high-cost markets to moderately priced areas," the group reported.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.16 percent in March, down from 6.29 percent in February and 6.32 percent in March 2006.

Total housing inventory levels fell 1.6 percent at the end of March to 3.75 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 6.8-month supply in February.

The rate of single-family home sales dropped 9.5 percent to 5.32 million in March from 5.88 million in February, and was 11.9 percent below the March 2006 rate, according to the report. The median existing single-family home price was $215,300 in March, down 0.9 percent compared to March 2006.

The rate of existing-condo and co-op sales, at 800,000 units in March, dropped 6.7 percent compared to the same month last year while it was unchanged compared to February 2007. The median existing condo price was $228,200 in March, up 3.2 percent from March 2006.

Regionally, existing-home sales dropped 9.7 percent in the South compared to March 2006. The median price in the South, at $180,700, was up 0.4 percent compared to March 2006.

Existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 5.1 percent and the median price, at $268,600, dropped 0.7 percent in March compared to the same month last year.

Existing-home sales in the West dropped 16.7 percent in March compared to March 2006 while the median price, at $330,600, fell 2.9 percent.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest dropped 13.7 percent while the median price, at $160,400, dropped 0.2 percent in March compared to the same month last year.

Existing-home sales include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, and are based on transaction closings. Existing-home sales generally account for about 85 percent of total home sales, and the Realtor statistics are based on about 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month.

The Kiplinger Letter - Vol. 83, No. 44  Housing sales forecast falling 9% this year, total home sales will drop 8% in '07...not quite as severe as this year. We see median sales prices off 3% in 2007.

The overall housing market has several more months of pain ahead before enough excess inventory is mopped up to balance supply and demand.

Overheated housing market is cooling By Adam Shell, USA TODAY

Selling a house the past few years has been easy. Put up a "For Sale" sign. Host an open house. Sift through multiple offers. Pick a buyer willing to fork over more cash than you initially asked for. Then brag about how much you got.

That was then. And now? While there's still a plentiful pipeline of home buyers looking to make a deal, finding one willing to make a split-second decision to buy and pay whatever it takes to get in the door is no longer a lock, real estate agents say.

In what could signal a mood shift in the feverish real estate market, tales of bidding wars and 30% annual price gains are quietly fading.

Instead, there's nervous chatter about the recent increase in the number of homes for sale, sellers cutting their asking prices and builders wooing buyers with incentives.

The reason: There are signs that the overheated market might finally be cooling. The Commerce Department, for example, said sales of new homes in September fell shy of expectations, median prices declined 5.7%, and the number of new homes for sale shot up to a record 493,000. Freddie Mac also said October mortgage applications seem to be "tapering off."

It's not just the megahot markets such as New York City, San Diego and Phoenix showing stress. Softness is also being reported in condo-happy Las Vegas, the stalled auto capital of Detroit and Midwest college towns such as Madison, Wis.

Most real estate agents and economists are not forecasting a real estate collapse, although some doomsayers say the bursting of the "bubble" is inevitable. Instead, they say the temperature of the housing market is dropping from an unhealthy 104.3 to a reading closer to the norm of 98.6.

"The market is leveling off, but it's not like there's a huge crash going on," says Pam O'Connor, CEO of Chicago-based Leading Real Estate Companies of the World.

Adds California-based agent Toni Martinez: "More buyers want to sleep on it before making an offer."

Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City, says the five-year housing bull run peaked this summer. "What we will see is a dramatic slowing in price appreciation," he says. Only a few, high-risk markets, he predicts, will experience price declines.

Once white-hot San Diego County is a test case. Home sales there fell 4.7% in September from year-earlier levels, and price appreciation slowed to 3.8%, says DataQuick Information Systems. Despite the pullback, DataQuick analyst John Karevoll describes the market as "stable" and "more normal."

Other signs of a slowdown:

• Ricardo Cortazar, a Realtor in Tempe, Ariz., says it now takes 35 days, on average, to sell a home. Six months ago, it took a week. Inventory in Arizona has swelled to 15,000 homes, vs. 6,000 in May.

• Vaughn Bryan, a real estate agent in San Bernardino County, has spotted another ominous trend: a rise in the number of 90-day listing contracts that expire without a sale.

• Dan Elsea, a Detroit Realtor, says it's common for sellers in the job-starved Motor City to reduce asking prices two, three or four times before signing a deal.

• Kelly Haslam of Madison, Wis., hasn't been able to sell her bungalow-style home despite putting it up for sale "by owner" seven weeks ago, hosting four open houses and dropping her price once.

• Judi Keenholtz, CEO of Empire Realty, which serves San Francisco's East Bay, says desirable homes in good school districts that used to fetch eight to 10 bids now get three or four.

Angst among agents

Signs of cooling have created angst among real estate agents. "You now have agents in the office walking over to other agents asking, 'Why has this property not sold?' " says Martinez, an agent at Century 21 Lois Lauer Realty in Redlands, Calif.

Much of the perceived softness must be kept in perspective, says J. Lennox Scott, a Seattle-based broker. He says business remains robust, citing price gains of 16.3% in September, vs. a year ago. What looks ominous is less so considering fresh numbers are being compared with record highs. "Homes continue to sell briskly," he says.

An existing home that sits on the market for four months is not uncommon when compared with long-term housing data, says National Association of Realtors (NAR) spokesman Walter Molony. A nationwide supply of homes that would take six months to sell is considered healthy. There is now a 4.7-month supply, up from 4.3 in May, the NAR says. In the 1990-91 recession, supply hit nine months.

Business is slowing, but not enough to create a true buyer's market. Yet, the recent inventory buildup could signal a shift from the years when sellers could name their price, says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. "Suddenly, the expectations of many sellers are being dashed," he says.

Part of the problem, Baker says, is that today's sellers are pricing their homes based on what comparable homes went for six months ago and tacking on an extra 10%. That formula, he says, is too aggressive.

High-end properties and the more speculative, investor-driven condominium market are under the most pressure. The Florida condo market, suffering from oversupply, overinflated prices and speculation, is prone to price declines of 20% to 30%, says Jack McCabe, a Deerfield Beach, Fla., housing consultant. In Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties, 11,465 units are under construction, permits for an additional 14,500 have been OK'd and plans for 36,000 more have been announced. Prices are "changing as we speak," he says.

The pricier end of the market suffers more from sticker shock. "Homes in the $1 million to $2 million range in hot metro areas are more vulnerable," says O'Connor.

Buyers become cautious

To sell, homes have to be priced right. Many potential buyers, their confidence shaken by high oil prices and hurricane fatigue, have turned cautious. They're leery of overpaying amid predictions of a downturn.

Interest rates have also been creeping up. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.15%, up from 5.64% a year ago, making monthly payments less affordable. The average monthly mortgage payment in Southern California in September was $2,034; that's $30 below the inflation-adjusted April 1989 peak but up 50% from 2000, DataQuick says.

In another subtle shift, many people looking to buy who a few months ago might have rushed to avoid paying higher prices are now waiting for prices to fall.

Take New Yorker Carl Haacke. He wants to move, but is in no hurry to make a bid on the elegant Brooklyn brownstone he covets. Instead, he's watched the asking price drop $200,000 from its initial $1.7 million. He figures if it drops once, it's likely to drop again. "That's my incentive to wait," Haacke says. If that strategy becomes the norm, more sellers will lower their prices to lure buyers back into the market.

The big question, Haacke says, is whether this is a temporary pause or the start of a longer-term downturn. "No one knows," he says.

Bubble theory proponents say it will end badly, with sharp price declines and intense financial pain like that investors suffered after the tech stock bubble burst in 2000. But for that to occur, it would take a dramatic rise in interest rates or a major shock to local economies resulting in steep job losses, says Mark Milner, chief risk officer at PMI Mortgage Insurance, a Walnut Creek, Calif.-based provider of mortgage insurance.

Optimists are betting on a so-called soft landing, characterized by flat or slightly declining prices. After analyzing soft landings in once-hot markets such as the United Kingdom and Australia, a report by ING Wholesale Banking said the U.S. housing market won't crash.

The Mortgage Bankers Association expects price gains to slow to around 5% in 2006 as the rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rises to 6.75% by year's end, still low by historical measures.

Both bulls and bears have evidence to back up their predictions. Much — but not all — of current data show that sales volume and price gains are still healthy, suggesting no danger of an imminent collapse.

September existing home sales came in at their second-best level ever, although sales were boosted by heavy buying in the Gulf Coast region after Hurricane Katrina, the NAR says. In early October, the NAR said its "pending home sales index" set a record. The national median price of a home was $212,000 in September, up 13.4% from a year ago — but down from $220,000 in August.

If you compare more volatile month-to-month, or quarter-to-quarter, data, a slowdown appears to be underway. The best recent example: a report of a third-quarter 2005 slowdown in New York City. The average sales price rose to $1.15 million, up 10.1% from a year ago, but was down 12.7% from a record $1.32 million in the second quarter.

While confident real estate agents rule out a double-digit price downdraft, such as the one Dallas saw in the early '80s, the risk of sizable price drops can't be ruled out, a recent PMI study said. Its "Market Risk Index," based on an analysis of the 50 biggest markets, found a 22% chance of a price decline in the next two years. PMI estimates home prices are overvalued by 33.7% in Los Angeles, 25.6% in central New Jersey, 25.5% in Las Vegas, and 18.2% in Washington, D.C.

"A lot has happened since June that has created a more risky housing environment," says Marco van Akkeren, an economist at PMI. "We have seen an increase in inflation, mortgage rates have jumped by half a percentage point, and the outlook for the economy is less certain in the wake of the hurricanes."

Contributing: Mindy Fetterman from McLean, Va; Dennis Wagner of The Arizona Republic in Phoenix; Ben Jones of The Post-Crescent in Appleton, Wis.; Matt Reed of Florida Today; Mike Linn of Montgomery (Ala.) Advertiser. November 1, 2005 USA TODAY

For Sellers

Selling your home shouldn't be a stressful ordeal. Making the smart move of choosing a REALTOR® is your first step to ensuring that your investment in your home pays off. My services and experience allow you to focus on your move while I manage your home sale from our initial consultation to the closing deal, and beyond. I pride myself on repeat business and hope you'll come to understand why.